Monte Carlo Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern Ghana
Seismic hazard assessment involves quantifying the likely ground motion intensities to be expected at a particular site or region. It is a crucial aspect of any seismic hazard mitigation program. The conventional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is highly reliant on the past seismic activities in a particular region. However, for regions with lower rates of seismicity, where seismological data is scanty, it would seem desirable to use a stochastic modelling (Monte Carlo based) approach. This study presents a Monte Carlo simulation hazard model for Southern Ghana. Six sites are selected in order to determine their expected ground motion intensities (peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration). Results revealed that Accra and Tema as the highly seismic cities in Southern Ghana, with Ho and Cape Coast having relatively lower seismicities. The expected peak ground acceleration corresponding to a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for the proposed seismic hazard model was as high as 0.06 g for the cities considered. However, at the rather extreme 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, a PGA of 0.5 g can be anticipated. Evidently, the 2% in 50 years uniform hazard spectrum for the highly seismic cities recorded high spectral accelerations, at a natural vibrational period within the ranges of about 0.1-0.3 sec. This indicates that low-rise structures in these cities may be exposed to high seismic risk.
Adom-Asamoah M, Banahene JO. Nonlinear seismic analysis of a super 13-element reinforced concrete beam-column joint model. Earthq Struct 2016;11:905–24. doi:10.12989/eas.2016.11.5.905.
Adom-Asamoah M, Osei JB. A comparative seismic fragility analysis of a multi and single component beam-column joint models. Cogent Eng 2018;5:1426204. doi:10.1080/23311916.2018.1426204.
Ahulu ST, Danuor SK, Asiedu DK. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana. J Seismol 2017;22:539–57. doi:10.1007/s10950-017-9721-x.
Ayele A. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ethiopia and the neighboring region. J Afr Earth Sci 2017;134:257–64. doi:10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2017.06.016.
Ezzelarab M, Shokry MMF, Mohamed AME, Helal AMA, Mohamed AA, El-Hadidy MS. Evaluation of seismic hazard at the northwestern part of Egypt. J Afr Earth Sci 2016;113:114–25. doi:10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2015.10.017.
Gaspar-Escribano JM, Rivas-Medina A, Parra H, Cabañas L, Benito B, Ruiz Barajas S, et al. Uncertainty assessment for the seismic hazard map of Spain. Eng Geol 2015;199:62–73. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.10.001.
Hassan HM, Panza GF, Romanelli F, ElGabry MN. Insight on seismic hazard studies for Egypt. Eng Geol 2017;220:99–109. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2017.01.029.
Rosenblueth E. Optimum reliabilities and optimum design. Struct Saf 1986;3:69–83. doi:10.1016/0167-4730(86)90009-3.
Hong HP, Goda K, Davenport AG. Seismic hazard analysis: a comparative study. Can J Civ Eng 2006;33:1156–71. doi:10.1139/l06-062.
Blundell DJ, Banson JKA. Interpretation of a seismic reflection survey across the Continental shelf south of Accra and it’s bearing on earthquakes in the area. Ghana Geol Surv Rep No 751 Pp 1–7 1975.
Junner N. The Accra earthquake of 22nd June, 1939. Gold Coast Geol Surv 1941:3–41.
Ambraseys N., Adams R. Seismicity of West Africa. Ann Geophys 1986;4:679–702.
Amponsah P, Leydecker G, Muff R. Earthquake catalogue of Ghana for the time period 1615–2003 with special reference to the tectono-structural evolution of south-east Ghana. J Afr Earth Sci 2012;75:1–13. doi:10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2012.07.002.
Musson RMW. The seismicity of ghana. Bull Earthq Eng 2014;12:157–69. doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9555-z.
Quaah A. Microseismicity, Past Seismic Activity and Seismic Risk in Southern Ghana. PhD. University of London, 1980.
Tobyáš V, Mittag R. Local magnitude, surface wave magnitude and seismic energy. Stud Geophys Geod 1991;35:354–7. doi:10.1007/BF01613981.
Bora DK. Scaling relations of moment magnitude, local magnitude, and duration magnitude for earthquakes originated in northeast India. Earthq Sci 2016;29:153–64. doi:10.1007/s11589-016-0154-3.
Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, 3rd Edition. WileyCom n.d. https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Simulation+and+the+Monte+Carlo+Method%2C+3rd+Edition-p-9781118632161 (accessed May 20, 2018).
Atkinson GM, Goda K. 1 - Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of civil infrastructure. Handb. Seism. Risk Anal. Manag. Civ. Infrastruct. Syst., Woodhead Publishing; 2013, p. 3–28. doi:10.1533/9780857098986.1.3.
Silva W, Gregor N, Darragh R. DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL HARD ROCK ATTENUATION RELATIONS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA n.d.:57.
Tavakoli B. Empirical-Stochastic Ground-Motion Prediction for Eastern North America. Bull Seismol Soc Am 2005;95:2283–96. doi:10.1785/0120050030.
Atkinson GM, Boore DM. Earthquake Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Eastern North America. Bull Seismol Soc Am 2006;96:2181–205. doi:10.1785/0120050245.
Pezeshk S, Zandieh A, Tavakoli B. Hybrid Empirical Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Eastern North America Using NGA Models and Updated Seismological Parameters. Bull Seismol Soc Am 2011;101:1859–70. doi:10.1785/0120100144.
British Standards Institution, European Committee for Standardization. Eurocode 8, design of structures for earthquake resistance. Part 1, Part 1,. London: British Standards Institution; 2005.
Canada G of CNRC. National Building Code of Canada 2015 - National Research Council Canada 2016. https://www.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/eng/publications/codes_centre/2015_national_building_code.html (accessed May 20, 2018).
Osei JB, Adom-Asamoah M. Average spectral acceleration: Ground Motion Duration Evaluation. Earthq Struct 2018;14:577–87. doi:https://doi.org/10.12989/eas.2018.14.6.577.
Grunthal G, Boss C, Sellami C, Mayer-Rosa S, Giardini D. Compilation of the GSHAP regional seismic hazard for Europe, Africa and Middle East 1999.
Adom-Asamoah M, Generation of analytical fragility curves for Ghanaian nonductile reinforced concrete frame buildings. International Journal of the Physical Sciences 2012;7(19): 2735-2744. doi: 10.5897/ijps11.1541.
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2018 Jack Banahene Osei, Mark Adom-Asamoah, Ahmed Ali Awadallah Ahmed, Eugene Boasiako Antwi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.