Solar and Human Activity Impact on High and Low Land River Flows

Arban Berisha


In the last two decades, in the Kosovo area, we have seen extraordinary climate changes and their consequences, such as flash floods, empty reservoirs, and forest burning. So, the objective of this article is to analyze the main drivers of climate change due to global warming, like Temperatures, Precipitation, River flows (TPQ), Human Activity (HA) on one side and the extraterritorial factor of sunspot number NS on the other side. The methodology of the approach is statistical, with trend detection, comparison, and calculation of significance for each factor. There are data in state institutions, daily and monthly, for TPQ from 1963–2022 and Sunspots from 1954–2006. Three Highland HL, two Lowland LL rivers, and two Temperature and Precipitation Meteorological stations were considered for analysis. For river LL1, the data needed to be completed, and correlation, calibration, and validation methods were applied to fill the gaps. Results indicate that sunspot numbers show a decrease of -18% from the average value, Temperature +24%, Precipitation +5%, HL1 flow -31%, HL2 -0.5%, HL3 -7.5%, LL1 -22%, and LL2 -13%. The significance of the impact of Sunspots on the air temperature approximates 75%, while the impact of human activity approximates 25%. This will be an excellent contribution to future water resource management plans.


Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-07-06

Full Text: PDF


Sunspots; Temperatures; Precipitations; River-Flows; Trends.


Stager, J. C., Ruzmaikin, A., Conway, D., Verburg, P., & Mason, P. J. (2007). Sunspots, El Niño, and the levels of Lake Victoria, East Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 112(15), 1-13. doi:10.1029/2006JD008362.

Laurenz, L., Lüdecke, H. J., & Lüning, S. (2019). Influence of solar activity changes on European rainfall. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 185, 29–42. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2019.01.012.

Schmutz, W. K. (2021). Changes in the Total Solar Irradiance and climatic effects. Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 11, 40. doi:10.1051/swsc/2021016.

Ormaza-Gonzalez, F. I., Espinoza-Celi, M. E., & Roa-López, H. M. (2022). Did Sunspots Cycles 19-24 Influence the Enso Events, Pdo, and Amo Indexes in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans? SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-44. doi:10.2139/ssrn.4040383.

Schulte, J. A., Najjar, R. G., & Li, M. (2016). The influence of climate modes on streamflow in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 5, 80–99. doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.11.003.

Demaria, E. M. C., Palmer, R. N., & Roundy, J. K. (2016). Regional climate change projections of streamflow characteristics in the Northeast and Midwest U.S. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 5, 309–323. doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.11.007.

Maghrabi, A. H., Alamoudi, H. A., & Alruhaili, A. S. (2023). Long-Term Rainfall Trends in South West Asia—Saudi Arabia. American Journal of Climate Change, 12(01), 204–217. doi:10.4236/ajcc.2023.121010.

Lopes, A. M., & Okello, S. (2019). Improved Hydrological Understanding of a Semi-Arid Subtropical Transboundary Basin Using Multiple Techniques – The Incomati River Basin. CRC Press, London, United Kingdom.

Garrousi, R. J., & Chandrashekara, B. (2012). The study of relationship between climatic elements (precipitation and temperature) with runoff in the Navroud basin. Annals of Biological Research, 3(6), 2917–2929.

Mwangi, H. M., Julich, S., Patil, S. D., McDonald, M. A., & Feger, K. H. (2016). Relative contribution of land use change and climate variability on discharge of upper Mara River, Kenya. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 5, 244–260. doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.12.059.

Maghrabi, A. H. (2021). Long-Term Visibility Trends in the Riyadh Megacity, Central Arabian Peninsula and Their Possible Link to Solar Activity. American Journal of Climate Change, 10(03), 282–299. doi:10.4236/ajcc.2021.103013.

He, M., & Gautam, M. (2016). Variability and trends in precipitation, temperature and drought indices in the state of California. Hydrology, 3(2), 14. doi:10.3390/hydrology3020014.

Almazroui, M. (2020). Rainfall trends and extremes in Saudi Arabia in recent decades. Atmosphere, 11(9), 964. doi:10.3390/atmos11090964.

Yugoslavian Federal Hydrometeorological Institution. (2023). Hydrological Annually Data Book of Yugoslavia", years 1976-1986. Yugoslavian Federal Hydrometeorological Institution, Belgrade, Serbia.

Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia. (2023). Hydrological Data Books for Serbia. 1990-2021 years, Belgrade, Republic of Serbia. Available online: (accessed on April 2023).

Slovenian Environment Agency (2023). Hydro-meteorological observed data. Online for years 2008-2021, Ljubljana. Ministry of environment, Climate and Energy, Ljubljana, Slovenia. Available online: (accessed on April 2023).

Institute of Hydrometeorological and Seismology (2023). Hydro-meteorological observed data. Online for years 2008-2021. Podgorica, Montenegro. Available online: (accessed on April 2023).

Kosovo Hydro-meteorological Institution (2023). Hydro-meteorological observed data. Yearbooks and online for years 2014-2020, Kosovo Hydro-meteorological Institution, Pristina, Kosovo.

Alexander, W. J. (2010). Climate predictability: Technical Report, General Interest, 1-26.

Kirkby, J. (2007). Cosmic Rays and Climate. Surveys in Geophysics, 28(5–6), 333–375. doi:10.1007/s10712-008-9030-6.

Avramović, D. Mihajlović, E. Ilić-Petković, A., & Milošević, L. (2017). Indicators of Forest Fire Conditions in State Forests of Serbia in the Period from 2007 to 2016. Proceedings of the 14th IC Conference on protection in work, the way of successful business, 4-7 October, 2017, Divčibare, Serbia.

Plavšić, J., & Obušković, Z. (2012). Problems in trend analysis in hydrometeorological series when examining the impact of climate change. 16th scientific consultation of the Serbian Society for Hydraulic Research (SDHI) and the Serbian Society for Hydrology (SDH), Donji Milanovac, Serbia.

Full Text: PDF

DOI: 10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-07-06


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2023 Arban Berisha

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.