Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables: Rainfall and Temperature

Jada El Kasri, Abdelaziz Lahmili, Halima Soussi, Imane Jaouda, Maha Bentaher


The Souss-Massa region in southwestern Morocco is characterized by a semi-arid climate with high variability in rainfall. Frequent droughts and flash flood events combined with overexploitation of water resources in recent decades have had a significant impact on the human security and the economy which is mainly based on agriculture, tourism and fishery. For better management of extreme events and water resources under changing climatic conditions, a study was carried out to quantify the seasonal and annual variability and trends in rainfall and temperature over the past three decades with data from three stations. Climatological representative of the Souss-Massa region. The Mann-Kendall (MK) non-parametric test and the Sen’s slope are used to estimate the monotonic trend and magnitude of the trend of the variables, respectively. Statistical analysis of the rainfall series data set highlights that the occurrence of rainfall is unpredictable and irregular and the both the seasonal and annual rainfall trend appears negative (downward) for all the three climatological stations. The minimum temperature shows a remarkable increasing trend both on annual and seasonal scale while the maximum temperature registers a slightly increasing trend. The study presents some new insights on rainfall and temperature trends that will have significant impacts on the surface and groundwater resources of the region under changing climatic conditions. The results can help to prioritize new strategies to mitigate the risk of droughts, of floods and to manage water resources to sustain the dependence of agriculture tourism and fishery sectors in the region.


Doi: 10.28991/cej-2021-03091765

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Rainfall; Temperature; Mann-Kendall Test; Sen’s Slope Estimator; Trend Analysis; Souss Basin.


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DOI: 10.28991/cej-2021-03091765


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