Multi-Level Crash Prediction Models Considering Influence of Adjacent Zonal Attributes
Vol. 5 No. 3 (2019): March
Research Articles
Downloads
This study investigates factors affecting accidents across transport facilities and modes, using micro and macro levels variables simultaneously while accounting for the influence of adjacent zones on the accidents occurrence in a zone. To this end, 15968 accidents in 96 traffic analysis zones of Tehran were analyzed. Adverting to the multi-level structure of accidents data, the present study adopts a multilevel model for its modeling processes. The effects of the adjacent zones on the accidents which have occurred in one zone were assessed using the independent variables obtained from the zones adjacent to that specific zone. A Negative Binomial (NB) model was also developed, and results show that the multilevel model that considers the effect of adjacent zones shows a better performance compared to the multilevel model that does not consider the adjacent zones' effect and NB model. Moreover, the final models show that at intersections and road segments, the significant independent variables are different for each mode of transport. Adopting a comprehensive approach to incorporate a multi-level, multi-resolution (micro/macro) model accounting for adjacent zones' influence on multi-mode, multi-segment accidents is the contribution of this paper to accident studies.
Soltani, N., Saffarzadeh, M., & Naderan, A. (2019). Multi-Level Crash Prediction Models Considering Influence of Adjacent Zonal Attributes. Civil Engineering Journal, 5(3), 649–661. https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2019-03091276
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
[1] Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization (RMTO). "RMTO-Statistical yearbook, 2015.” Ministry of Road and Urban Development, Iran, (2015).
[2] European Commission. "Road safety in the European Union: Trends, statistics and main challenges.” (November 2016).
[3] Huang, Helai, Hanchu Zhou, Jie Wang, Fangrong Chang, and Ming Ma. "A Multivariate Spatial Model of Crash Frequency by Transportation Modes for Urban Intersections.” Analytic Methods in Accident Research 14 (June 2017): 10–21. doi:10.1016/j.amar.2017.01.001.
[4] Petzold, R. "Proactive approach to safety planning.” Public roads 66(6) (2003): 6-9.
[5] Lee, J., Abdel-Aty, M., Cai, Q. "Intersection crash prediction modeling with macro-level data from various geographic units.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 102 (2017): 213-226. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2017.03.009
[6] Gelman, A., Hill, J. "Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models.” Cambridge University Press New York, NY, USA, (2006).
[7] Siddiqui, C., Abdel-Aty, M., Choi, K. "Macroscopic spatial analysis of pedestrian and bicycle crashes.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 45 (2012): 382-391. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2011.08.003.
[8] Lee, J., Abdel-Aty, M., Choi, K., Huang, H. "Multi-level hot zone identification for pedestrian safety.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 76 (2015): 64-73. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2015.01.006.
[9] Cai, Q., Lee, J., Eluru, N., Abdel-Aty, M. "Macro-level pedestrian and bicycle crash analysis: Incorporating spatial spillover effects in dual state count models.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 93 (2016): 14-22. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2016.04.018.
[10] Lascala, E.A., Gerber, D., Gruenewald, P.J. "Demographic and environmental correlates of pedestrian injury collisions: A spatial analysis.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 32(5) (2000): 651-658. doi:10.1016/s0001-4575(99)00100-1.
[11] Ha, H.-H., Thill, J.-C. "Analysis of traffic hazard intensity: A spatial epidemiology case study of urban pedestrians.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 35(3) (2011): 230-240. doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2010.12.004.
[12] Lord, D., Mannering, F. "The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 44(5) (2010): 291-305. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2010.02.001.
[13] Mannering, F.L., Bhat, C.R. "Analytic methods in accident research: Methodological frontier and future directions.” Analytic methods in accident research 1(2014): 1-22. doi:10.1016/j.amar.2013.09.001.
[14] Anastasopoulos, P.C., Mannering, F.L. "A note on modeling vehicle accident frequencies with random-parameters count models.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 41(1) (2009): 153-159. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2008.10.005.
[15] Couto, A., Ferreira, S. "A note on modeling road accident frequency: A flexible elasticity model.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 43(6) (2011): 2104-2111. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2011.05.033.
[16] Lord, D., Guikema, S.D., Geedipally, S.R. "Application of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson generalized linear model for analyzing motor vehicle crashes.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 40(3) (2008): 1123-1134. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2007.12.003.
[17] Quddus, M.A. "Modelling area-wide count outcomes with spatial correlation and heterogeneity: An analysis of London crash data.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 40(4) (2008): 1486-1497. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2008.03.009.
[18] Hadayeghi, A., Shalaby, A.S., Persaud, B.N. "Development of planning level transportation safety tools using geographically weighted Poisson regression.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 42(2) (2010): 676-688. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.10.016.
[19] Naderan, A., Shahi, J. "Aggregate crash prediction models: Introducing crash generation concept.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 42(1) (2010): 339-346. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.08.020.
[20] Pulugurtha, S.S., Duddu, V.R., Kotagiri, Y. "Traffic analysis zone level crash estimation models based on land use characteristics.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 50 (2013): 678-687. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2012.06.016.
[21] Xu, P., Huang, H. "Modeling crash spatial heterogeneity: Random parameter versus geographically weighting.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 75 (2015): 16-25. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2014.10.020.
[22] Huang, H., Song, B., Xu, P., Zeng, Q., Lee, J., Abdel-Aty, M. "Macro and micro models for zonal crash prediction with application in hot zones identification.” Journal of Transport Geography 54 (2016): 248-256. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.06.012.
[23] Guo, F., Wang, X., Abdel-Aty, M.A. "Modeling signalized intersection safety with corridor-level spatial correlations.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 42(1) (2010): 84-92. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.07.005.
[24] Mitra, S., Washington, S. "On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 49 (2012): 439-448. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2012.03.014.
[25] Dupont, E., Papadimitriou, E., Martensen, H., Yannis, G. "Multilevel analysis in road safety research.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 60 (2013): 402-411. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2013.04.035.
[26] Huang, H., Abdel-Aty, M. "Multilevel data and Bayesian analysis in traffic safety.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 42(6) (2010): 1556-1565. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2010.03.013.
[27] Shi, Q., Abdel-Aty, M., Yu, R. "Multi-level Bayesian safety analysis with unprocessed automatic vehicle identification data for an urban expressway.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 88 (2016): 68-76. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2015.12.007.
[28] Greibe, P. "Accident prediction models for urban roads.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 35(2) (2003): 273-285. doi:10.1016/s0001-4575(02)00005-2.
[29] Abbas, K.A. "Traffic safety assessment and development of predictive models for accidents on rural roads in Egypt.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 36(2) (2004): 149-163. doi:10.1016/s0001-4575(02)00145-8.
[30] Gujarati, D.N. "Basic Econometrics.” Tata McGraw-Hill Education, (2009).
[31] Jones, K. "Using multilevel models for survey analysis.” Journal of the Market Research Society 35 (1993): 249-265.
[32] Wang, J., Huang, H., Zeng, Q. "The effect of zonal factors in estimating crash risks by transportation modes: Motor vehicle, bicycle and pedestrian.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 98 (2017): 223-231. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2016.10.018.
[33] Kazazi, J., Winkler, S., Vollrath, M. "The influence of attention allocation and age on intersection accidents.” Transportation research part F: traffic psychology and behaviour 43 (2016): 1-14. doi:10.1016/j.trf.2016.09.010.
[34] Mehdizadeh, M., Shariat-Mohaymany, A., Nordfjaern, T. "Accident involvement among Iranian lorry drivers: Direct and indirect effects of background variables and aberrant driving behaviour.” Transportation research part F: traffic psychology and behaviour 58 (2018): 39-55. doi:10.1016/j.trf.2018.05.029.
[35] Qiu, L., Nixon, W.A. "Effects of adverse weather on traffic crashes: Systematic review and meta-analysis.” Transportation Research Record 2055(1) (2008): 139-146. doi:10.3141/2055-16.
[36] Abdel-Aty, M., Wang, X. "Crash estimation at signalized intersections along corridors: Analyzing spatial effect and identifying significant factors.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1953 (2006): 98-111. doi:10.3141/1953-12.
[37] Xie, K., Wang, X., Huang, H., Chen, X. "Corridor-level signalized intersection safety analysis in shanghai, china using Bayesian hierarchical models.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 50 (2013): 25-33. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2012.10.003.
[38] Wang, X., Song, Y., Yu, R., Schultz, G.G. "Safety modeling of suburban arterials in shanghai, china.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 70 (2014): 215-224. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2014.04.005.
[39] Wier, M., Weintraub, J., Humphreys, E.H., Seto, E., Bhatia, R. "An area-level model of vehicle-pedestrian injury collisions with implications for land use and transportation planning.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 41(1) (2009): 137-145. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2008.10.001.
[40] Abdel-Aty, M., Siddiqui, C., Huang, H., Wang, X. "Integrating trip and roadway characteristics to manage safety in traffic analysis zones.” Transportation Research Record 2213(1) (2011): 20-28. doi:10.3141/2213-04.
[41] Wang, J., Huang, H. "Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 90 (2016): 152-158. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2016.02.018.
[42] Noland, R.B., Quddus, M.A. "A spatially disaggregate analysis of road casualties in England.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 36(6) (2004): 973-984. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2003.11.001.
[2] European Commission. "Road safety in the European Union: Trends, statistics and main challenges.” (November 2016).
[3] Huang, Helai, Hanchu Zhou, Jie Wang, Fangrong Chang, and Ming Ma. "A Multivariate Spatial Model of Crash Frequency by Transportation Modes for Urban Intersections.” Analytic Methods in Accident Research 14 (June 2017): 10–21. doi:10.1016/j.amar.2017.01.001.
[4] Petzold, R. "Proactive approach to safety planning.” Public roads 66(6) (2003): 6-9.
[5] Lee, J., Abdel-Aty, M., Cai, Q. "Intersection crash prediction modeling with macro-level data from various geographic units.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 102 (2017): 213-226. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2017.03.009
[6] Gelman, A., Hill, J. "Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models.” Cambridge University Press New York, NY, USA, (2006).
[7] Siddiqui, C., Abdel-Aty, M., Choi, K. "Macroscopic spatial analysis of pedestrian and bicycle crashes.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 45 (2012): 382-391. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2011.08.003.
[8] Lee, J., Abdel-Aty, M., Choi, K., Huang, H. "Multi-level hot zone identification for pedestrian safety.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 76 (2015): 64-73. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2015.01.006.
[9] Cai, Q., Lee, J., Eluru, N., Abdel-Aty, M. "Macro-level pedestrian and bicycle crash analysis: Incorporating spatial spillover effects in dual state count models.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 93 (2016): 14-22. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2016.04.018.
[10] Lascala, E.A., Gerber, D., Gruenewald, P.J. "Demographic and environmental correlates of pedestrian injury collisions: A spatial analysis.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 32(5) (2000): 651-658. doi:10.1016/s0001-4575(99)00100-1.
[11] Ha, H.-H., Thill, J.-C. "Analysis of traffic hazard intensity: A spatial epidemiology case study of urban pedestrians.” Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 35(3) (2011): 230-240. doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2010.12.004.
[12] Lord, D., Mannering, F. "The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 44(5) (2010): 291-305. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2010.02.001.
[13] Mannering, F.L., Bhat, C.R. "Analytic methods in accident research: Methodological frontier and future directions.” Analytic methods in accident research 1(2014): 1-22. doi:10.1016/j.amar.2013.09.001.
[14] Anastasopoulos, P.C., Mannering, F.L. "A note on modeling vehicle accident frequencies with random-parameters count models.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 41(1) (2009): 153-159. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2008.10.005.
[15] Couto, A., Ferreira, S. "A note on modeling road accident frequency: A flexible elasticity model.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 43(6) (2011): 2104-2111. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2011.05.033.
[16] Lord, D., Guikema, S.D., Geedipally, S.R. "Application of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson generalized linear model for analyzing motor vehicle crashes.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 40(3) (2008): 1123-1134. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2007.12.003.
[17] Quddus, M.A. "Modelling area-wide count outcomes with spatial correlation and heterogeneity: An analysis of London crash data.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 40(4) (2008): 1486-1497. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2008.03.009.
[18] Hadayeghi, A., Shalaby, A.S., Persaud, B.N. "Development of planning level transportation safety tools using geographically weighted Poisson regression.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 42(2) (2010): 676-688. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.10.016.
[19] Naderan, A., Shahi, J. "Aggregate crash prediction models: Introducing crash generation concept.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 42(1) (2010): 339-346. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.08.020.
[20] Pulugurtha, S.S., Duddu, V.R., Kotagiri, Y. "Traffic analysis zone level crash estimation models based on land use characteristics.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 50 (2013): 678-687. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2012.06.016.
[21] Xu, P., Huang, H. "Modeling crash spatial heterogeneity: Random parameter versus geographically weighting.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 75 (2015): 16-25. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2014.10.020.
[22] Huang, H., Song, B., Xu, P., Zeng, Q., Lee, J., Abdel-Aty, M. "Macro and micro models for zonal crash prediction with application in hot zones identification.” Journal of Transport Geography 54 (2016): 248-256. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.06.012.
[23] Guo, F., Wang, X., Abdel-Aty, M.A. "Modeling signalized intersection safety with corridor-level spatial correlations.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 42(1) (2010): 84-92. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.07.005.
[24] Mitra, S., Washington, S. "On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 49 (2012): 439-448. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2012.03.014.
[25] Dupont, E., Papadimitriou, E., Martensen, H., Yannis, G. "Multilevel analysis in road safety research.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 60 (2013): 402-411. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2013.04.035.
[26] Huang, H., Abdel-Aty, M. "Multilevel data and Bayesian analysis in traffic safety.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 42(6) (2010): 1556-1565. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2010.03.013.
[27] Shi, Q., Abdel-Aty, M., Yu, R. "Multi-level Bayesian safety analysis with unprocessed automatic vehicle identification data for an urban expressway.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 88 (2016): 68-76. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2015.12.007.
[28] Greibe, P. "Accident prediction models for urban roads.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 35(2) (2003): 273-285. doi:10.1016/s0001-4575(02)00005-2.
[29] Abbas, K.A. "Traffic safety assessment and development of predictive models for accidents on rural roads in Egypt.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 36(2) (2004): 149-163. doi:10.1016/s0001-4575(02)00145-8.
[30] Gujarati, D.N. "Basic Econometrics.” Tata McGraw-Hill Education, (2009).
[31] Jones, K. "Using multilevel models for survey analysis.” Journal of the Market Research Society 35 (1993): 249-265.
[32] Wang, J., Huang, H., Zeng, Q. "The effect of zonal factors in estimating crash risks by transportation modes: Motor vehicle, bicycle and pedestrian.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 98 (2017): 223-231. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2016.10.018.
[33] Kazazi, J., Winkler, S., Vollrath, M. "The influence of attention allocation and age on intersection accidents.” Transportation research part F: traffic psychology and behaviour 43 (2016): 1-14. doi:10.1016/j.trf.2016.09.010.
[34] Mehdizadeh, M., Shariat-Mohaymany, A., Nordfjaern, T. "Accident involvement among Iranian lorry drivers: Direct and indirect effects of background variables and aberrant driving behaviour.” Transportation research part F: traffic psychology and behaviour 58 (2018): 39-55. doi:10.1016/j.trf.2018.05.029.
[35] Qiu, L., Nixon, W.A. "Effects of adverse weather on traffic crashes: Systematic review and meta-analysis.” Transportation Research Record 2055(1) (2008): 139-146. doi:10.3141/2055-16.
[36] Abdel-Aty, M., Wang, X. "Crash estimation at signalized intersections along corridors: Analyzing spatial effect and identifying significant factors.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1953 (2006): 98-111. doi:10.3141/1953-12.
[37] Xie, K., Wang, X., Huang, H., Chen, X. "Corridor-level signalized intersection safety analysis in shanghai, china using Bayesian hierarchical models.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 50 (2013): 25-33. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2012.10.003.
[38] Wang, X., Song, Y., Yu, R., Schultz, G.G. "Safety modeling of suburban arterials in shanghai, china.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 70 (2014): 215-224. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2014.04.005.
[39] Wier, M., Weintraub, J., Humphreys, E.H., Seto, E., Bhatia, R. "An area-level model of vehicle-pedestrian injury collisions with implications for land use and transportation planning.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 41(1) (2009): 137-145. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2008.10.001.
[40] Abdel-Aty, M., Siddiqui, C., Huang, H., Wang, X. "Integrating trip and roadway characteristics to manage safety in traffic analysis zones.” Transportation Research Record 2213(1) (2011): 20-28. doi:10.3141/2213-04.
[41] Wang, J., Huang, H. "Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 90 (2016): 152-158. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2016.02.018.
[42] Noland, R.B., Quddus, M.A. "A spatially disaggregate analysis of road casualties in England.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 36(6) (2004): 973-984. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2003.11.001.
- Authors retain all copyrights. It is noticeable that authors will not be forced to sign any copyright transfer agreements.
- This work (including HTML and PDF Files) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
