1. Home
  2. Vol 9, No 9 (2023)
  3. Pratama

Enhancing Risk Assessment in Toll Road Operations: A Hybrid Rough Delphi-Rough DEMATEL Approach

G. Ardi Pratama, Y. Latief, Bambang Trigunarsyah, L. Sagita Riantini, Lukas Beladi Sihombing

Abstract


This study aims to identify significant risks and their relationship to the successful operation of the Trans-Sumatra toll road in Indonesia. The research utilizes the Delphi and DEMATEL methods, along with rough set analysis, to identify and evaluate 28 risks associated with toll road operations in Sumatra. The research identifies 13 dominant risks, including policy changes, government intervention, inflation, financial distress, fluctuation of interest rate, fluctuation of currency, high cost of maintenance, low volume of traffic, competitive routes, overloading vehicles, many infrastructure defects, and natural disasters. In this case, natural disasters, inflation, and vehicles with excessive loads are the most dominant cause factors because those risks have the highest cause value based on the cause-effect diagram. Furthermore, the prominence diagram reveals that income risk, policy changes, and financial distress have notable implications for operational activities. The study presents a MCDM risk assessment approach that incorporates rough set analysis, providing a comprehensive understanding of the critical risk relationship factors for toll road operations. By integrating rough set analysis, this research contributes to the field of toll road operations and risk assessment. The identified risks and their relationships serve as a foundation for developing effective strategies for toll road operational management.

 

Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-09-03

Full Text: PDF


Keywords


Toll Road Operations; Risks; Rough Set; Delphi; DEMATEL; MCDM.

References


Suseno, Y. H., Wibowo, M. A., & Setiadji, B. H. (2015). Risk analysis of BOT scheme on post-construction toll road. Procedia Engineering, 125, 117–123. doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2015.11.018.

Kurniawan, I. D., Asrori, M. H., & Septiningsih, I. (2022). The Utilization of Sumatra Toll Road in Building the Economy: A Hope Or Just Wishful Thinking?. Resmilitaris, 12(2), 780-795.

Fakhrin, M. R., Riantini, L. S., & Latief, Y. (2021). Risk-Based Institutional Evaluation of Trans Sumatera Toll Road Infrastructure Development to Improve Time Performance. International Conference in Global Optimization and Its Applications, 23 23 December, 2021, Bogor, Indonesia.

Ghazali, F. E. M. (2009). Operational risks for highway projects in Malaysia. International Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 3(5), 366-369.

Likhitruangsilp, V., Do, S. T., & Onishi, M. (2017). A comparative study on the risk perceptions of the public and private sectors in public-private partnership (PPP) transportation projects in Vietnam. Engineering Journal, 21(7), 213–231. doi:10.4186/ej.2017.21.7.213.

Sy, D. T., Likhitruangsilp, V., Onishi, M., & Nguyen, P. T. (2017). Impacts of risk factors on the performance of public-private partnership transportation projects in Vietnam. ASEAN Engineering Journal, 7(2), 30–52. doi:10.11113/aej.v7.15520.

Wirahadikusumah, R. D., Sapitri, Susanti, B., & Soemardi, B. W. (2018). Risk in government’s estimate for toll road: Based on investors’ perspective. International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology, 8(2), 475–482. doi:10.18517/ijaseit.8.2.4322.

Fazli, S., Kiani Mavi, R., & Vosooghidizaji, M. (2015). Crude oil supply chain risk management with DEMATEL–ANP. Operational Research, 15(3), 453–480. doi:10.1007/s12351-015-0182-0.

Zhu, F., Hu, H., & Xu, F. (2022). Risk assessment model for international construction projects considering risk interdependence using the DEMATEL method. PLOS ONE, 17(5), e0265972. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0265972.

Benabdallah, C., El-Amraoui, A., Delmotte, F., & Frikha, A. (2022). Evaluation on Risks of Sustainable Supply Chain Based on Integrated Rough DEMATEL in Tunisian Dairy Industry. International Journal of Supply and Operations Management, 9(3), 338–359. doi:10.22034/ijsom.2021.109143.2205.

Stević, Ž., Petrović, G., & Stanujkic, D. (2018). Novel Rough Delphi Method for Determination Weights of Criteria. Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Management, Engineering and Environment (ICMNEE 2018), 11-12 October, 2018, Belgrade, Serbia.

Song, W., & Cao, J. (2017). A rough DEMATEL-based approach for evaluating interaction between requirements of product-service system. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 110, 353–363. doi:10.1016/j.cie.2017.06.020.

Clayton, M. J. (1997). Delphi: A technique to harness expert opinion for critical decision-making tasks in education. Educational Psychology, 17(4), 373–386. doi:10.1080/0144341970170401.

Ho, Y. F., & Wang, H. L. (2008). Applying fuzzy Delphi method to select the variables of a sustainable urban system dynamics model. Proceedings of the 26th International Conference of System, 20-24 July, 2008, Athens, Greece.

Ebrahimi, S., & Bridgelall, R. (2021). A fuzzy Delphi analytic hierarchy model to rank factors influencing public transit mode choice: A case study. Research in Transportation Business & Management, 39, 100496. doi:10.1016/j.rtbm.2020.100496.

Hsu, Y. L., Lee, C. H., & Kreng, V. B. (2010). The application of Fuzzy Delphi Method and Fuzzy AHP in lubricant regenerative technology selection. Expert Systems with Applications, 37(1), 419–425. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2009.05.068.

Alfaggi, W., & Naimi, S. (2022). An Optimal Cost Estimation Practices of Fuzzy AHP for Building Construction Projects in Libya. Civil Engineering Journal, 8(6), 1194-1204. doi:10.28991/CEJ-2022-08-06-08.

Mohammadfam, I., Khajevandi, A. A., Dehghani, H., Babamiri, M., & Farhadian, M. (2022). Analysis of Factors Affecting Human Reliability in the Mining Process Design Using Fuzzy Delphi and DEMATEL Methods. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(13), 8168. doi:10.3390/su14138168.

Si, S. L., You, X. Y., Liu, H. C., & Zhang, P. (2018). DEMATEL Technique: A Systematic Review of the State-of-the-Art Literature on Methodologies and Applications. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2018, 1–33. doi:10.1155/2018/3696457.

Dehdasht, G., Mohamad Zin, R., Ferwati, M., Mohammed Abdullahi, M., Keyvanfar, A., & McCaffer, R. (2017). DEMATEL-ANP Risk Assessment in Oil and Gas Construction Projects. Sustainability, 9(8), 1420. doi:10.3390/su9081420.

Zhang, L., Sun, X., & Xue, H. (2019). Identifying critical risks in Sponge City PPP projects using DEMATEL method: A case study of China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 226, 949–958. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.067.

Koca, G., & Yıldırım, S. (2021). Bibliometric analysis of DEMATEL method. Decision Making: Applications in Management and Engineering, 4(1), 85–103. doi:10.31181/dmame2104085g.

Hatefi, S. M., & Tamošaitienė, J. (2018). An integrated fuzzy DEMATEL-fuzzy ANP model for evaluating construction projects by considering interrelationships among risk factors. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 25(2), 114–131. doi:10.3846/jcem.2019.8280.

Hapsari, I. C., Anandya, R., Hidayanto, A. N., Budi, N. F. A., & Phusavat, K. (2022). Prioritizing Barriers and Strategies Mapping in Business Intelligence Projects Using Fuzzy AHP TOPSIS Framework in Developing Country. Emerging Science Journal, 6(2), 337-355. doi:10.28991/ESJ-2022-06-02-010.

Chen, Z., Ming, X., Zhang, X., Yin, D., & Sun, Z. (2019). A rough-fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP method for evaluating sustainable value requirement of product service system. Journal of Cleaner Production, 228, 485–508. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.145.

Deveci, M., Özcan, E., John, R., Covrig, C. F., & Pamucar, D. (2020). A study on offshore wind farm siting criteria using a novel interval-valued fuzzy-rough based Delphi method. Journal of Environmental Management, 270, 110916. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110916.

Tsai, H. C., Lee, A. S., Lee, H. N., Chen, C. N., & Liu, Y. C. (2020). An application of the fuzzy Delphi method and fuzzy AHP on the discussion of training indicators for the regional competition, Taiwan national skills competition, in the trade of joinery. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(10), 4290. doi:10.3390/su12104290.

Ahmadi, M., Zakerian, S. A., Salmanzadeh, H., & Mortezapour, A. (2016). Identification of the Ergonomic Interventions Goals from the Viewpoint of Ergonomics Experts of Iran using Fuzzy Delphi Method. International Journal of Occupational Hygiene, 8(3), 151–157.

Habibi, A., Jahantigh, F. F., & Sarafrazi, A. (2015). Fuzzy Delphi Technique for Forecasting and Screening Items. Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management, 5(2), 130. doi:10.5958/2249-7307.2015.00036.5.

Kiani Mavi, R., & Standing, C. (2018). Critical success factors of sustainable project management in construction: A fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 194, 751–765. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.05.120.

Roy, J., Pamučar, D., Adhikary, K., & Kar, K. (2018). A rough strength relational DEMATEL model for analysing the key success factors of hospital service quality. Decision Making: Applications in Management and Engineering, 1(1), 121–142. doi:10.31181/dmame1801121r.

Febrianto, C., Riantiniand, L. S., Latief, Y., & Ardi, G. (2023). Risk Factors and Value of Risk Factors on Toll Road Investment Project in Indonesia. 6th Mechanical Engineering, Science and Technology International conference (MEST 2022), 16 April, 2023, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta, Surakarta, Indonesia.

Wibowo, A., Permana, A., Kochendörfer, B., Kiong, R. T. L., Jacob, D., & Neunzehn, D. (2012). Modeling Contingent Liabilities Arising from Government Guarantees in Indonesian BOT/PPP Toll Roads. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(12), 1403–1410. doi:10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000555.

McKay, T., Terblans, Y., & Lawton, M. (2018). Sustainable Road and Traffic Management: The Case of a Provincial Road in Gauteng, South Africa. Transport & Logistics: The International Journal, 18(44), 98-112.

Riantini, L. S., Latief, Y., & Ardi, G. (2023). Risk-Based Evaluation for the Financial Model of Trans Sumatra Toll Road Infrastructure Development Project. 6th Mechanical Engineering, Science and Technology International conference (MEST 2022), 16 April, 2023, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta, Surakarta, Indonesia.

Song, W., Zhu, Y., Li, S., Wang, L., & Zhang, H. (2022). Risk evaluation of information technology outsourcing project: An integrated approach considering risk interactions and hierarchies. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 113, 104938. doi:10.1016/j.engappai.2022.104938.


Full Text: PDF

DOI: 10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-09-03

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Bookmark and Share


Copyright (c) 2023 Gilang Ardi Pratama, Yusuf Latief, Bambang Trigunarsyah, Leni Sagita Riantini, Lukas Beladi Sihombing

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
x
Message