Modeling the Influence of Meteorological Variables on Runoff in a Tropical Watershed
Proper understanding of the historical annual runoff characteristics with respect to climate impacts is essential for effective planning as well as the management of water resources in river basins. In this study, the climate-flood model which connects the runoff and climate was developed for Adada River Nigeria. Thirty years records of climatic and runoff data were used to develop a multiple linear regression model. The coefficient of determination was evaluated for the developed model, and the hypothesis was equally tested with the aid of t-test and one-way analysis of variance. The multiple regression analysis indicated that the climate-flood model was statistically signiﬁcant (p˂0.05) in predicting the annual runoff. The results also show that the climatic variables accounted for 66.1% of runoff variation due to the undisturbed gauging basin of the river. The wind speed and the duration of sunlight were not statistically signiﬁcant predictors of runoff in the area. These results, obtained signify that climate has a major impact on runoff and it could help in understanding the availability of water within the catchment area.
Full Text: PDF
Obasi, A.A., K.N. Ogbu, E.L. Ndulue, V.N. Ogwo, and C.C. Mbajiorgu. “Prediction of the Impacts of Climate Changes on the Stream Flow of Ajali River Watershed Using SWAT Model.” Nigerian Journal of Technology 36, no. 4 (January 15, 2018): 1286. doi:10.4314/njt.v36i4.39.
Abdullahi, Abubakar Sadiq, and Ali Bakari. “Developing Sustainable Flood Risk Management Framework for Kebbi State, Nigeria.” European Scientific Journal ESJ 16, no. 23 (August 31, 2020). doi:10.19044/esj.2020.v16n23p233.
UNISDR “Words into Action Guidelines: National Disaster Risk Assessment Hazard Specific Risk Assessment Report.” United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (2017) Available online: http://www.unisdr.org/files/608_10340.pdf accessed 6 July 2018. (Accessed on 26 March 2020).
Samantaray, Dibyendu, Chandranath Chatterjee, Rajendra Singh, Praveen Kumar Gupta, and Sushma Panigrahy. “Flood Risk Modeling for Optimal Rice Planning for Delta Region of Mahanadi River Basin in India.” Natural Hazards 76, no. 1 (November 11, 2014): 347–372. doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1493-9.
World Bank. “The World Bank Annual Report 2017. Washington, DC: World Bank (2017). doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1119-7. Available online: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/27986. (Accessed on 12 April 2020).
Echendu, Adaku Jane. “The Impact of Flooding on Nigeria’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).” Ecosystem Health and Sustainability 6, no. 1 (July 22, 2020): 1791735. doi:10.1080/20964129.2020.1791735.
Tanaka, Tomohiro, Yasuto Tachikawa, Yutaka Ichikawa, and Kazuaki Yorozu. “Impact Assessment of Upstream Flooding on Extreme Flood Frequency Analysis by Incorporating a Flood-Inundation Model for Flood Risk Assessment.” Journal of Hydrology 554 (November 2017): 370–382. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.012.
Oladokun, V.O., and D. Proverbs. “Flood Risk Management in Nigeria: a Review of the Challenges and Opportunities.” International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering 6, no. 3 (August 31, 2016): 485–497. doi:10.2495/safe-v6-n3-485-497.
Olaore, A. Y., Godwin N Aja, (2014). “The Impact of Flooding on the Social Determinants of Health in Nigeria : A Case for North-South Institutional Collaboration to Address Climate Issues.” Developing Country Studies, Vol.4, No.22, (2014):6–13.
Al-Mansori, Nassrin Jassim Hussien, and Laith Shaker Ashoor Al-Zubaidi. “One-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Modeling of the Euphrates River and Prediction of Hydraulic Parameters.” Civil Engineering Journal 6, no. 6 (June 1, 2020): 1074–1090. doi:10.28991/cej-2020-03091530.
Jacob, Xavier K., Deepak Singh Bisht, Chandranath Chatterjee, and Narendra Singh Raghuwanshi. “Hydrodynamic Modeling for Flood Hazard Assessment in a Data Scarce Region: a Case Study of Bharathapuzha River Basin.” Environmental Modeling & Assessment 25, no. 1 (April 12, 2019): 97–114. doi:10.1007/s10666-019-09664-y.
Patel, S., Hardaha, M. K., Seetpal, M. K. and Madankar, K. K. (2016). Multiple Linear Regression Model for Stream Flow Estimation of Wainganga River. American Journal of Water Science and Engineering, Vol 2, no 1, (March 20, 2016):1–5. doi:10.11648/j.ajwse.20160201.11.
Pilgrim, D. H., T. G. Chapman, and D. G. Doran. “Problems of Rainfall-Runoff Modelling in Arid and Semiarid Regions.” Hydrological Sciences Journal 33, no. 4 (August 1988): 379–400. doi:10.1080/02626668809491261.
Jarboe, Joseph E., and C. T. Haan. “Calibrating a Water Yield Model for Small Ungaged Watersheds.” Water Resources Research 10, no. 2 (April 1974): 256–262. doi:10.1029/wr010i002p00256.
Haan, C. T. “A Water Yield Model for Small Watersheds.” Water Resources Research 8, no. 1 (February 1972): 58–69. doi:10.1029/wr008i001p00058.
Magette, W. L., V. O. Shanholtz, and J. C. Carr. “Estimating Selected Parameters for the Kentucky Watershed Model from Watershed Characteristics.” Water Resources Research 12, no. 3 (June 1976): 472–476. doi:10.1029/wr012i003p00472.
Jones, J. R. “Physical Data for Catchment Models.” Hydrology Research 7, no. 4 (August 1, 1976): 245–264. doi:10.2166/nh.1976.0016.
Xu, C.-Y., J. Seibert, and S. Halldin. “Regional Water Balance Modelling in the NOPEX Area: Development and Application of Monthly Water Balance Models.” Journal of Hydrology 180, no. 1–4 (May 1996): 211–236. doi:10.1016/0022-1694(95)02888-9.
Lindner- Lunsford, J. and Ellis, S. “Comparison of conceptually based and regression rainfall- runoff models, Denver Metropolitan Area, Colorado, and application in urban areas.” U. S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO. (1987).
Asati, S. R., and S. S. Rathore. "Comparative study of stream flow prediction models." International Journal of Life Sciences Biotechnology and Pharma Research 1, no. 2 (2012): 139-151.
Nzeh, E. and Ugwu, J.N. “Economic Viability of Processing and Marketing of Rice in Uzouwani Local Government Area of Enugu State , Nigeria.” Developing Country Studies 5,17(2015): 111–115.
Alum, Ogechi L., and Chukwuma O. B. Okoye. “Pollution Status of Major Rivers in an Agricultural Belt in Eastern Nigeria.” Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 192, no. 6 (May 26, 2020). doi:10.1007/s10661-020-08366-3.
Ifediegwu, Ikenna Stanley, Chinenye Florence Onyeabor, and Chiamaka Miracle Nnamani. “Geochemical Evaluation of Carbonate Aquifers in Ngbo and Environs, Ebonyi State, Southeastern, Nigeria.” Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 5, no. 4 (September 26, 2019): 1893–1909. doi:10.1007/s40808-019-00646-3.
Anambra-Imo River Basin Development Authority (AIRBDA) Hydrological Year (2010).
Zhang, Shifeng, Dong Hua, Xiujing Meng, and Yongyong Zhang. “Climate Change and Its Driving Effect on the Runoff in the ‘Three-River Headwaters’ Region.” Journal of Geographical Sciences 21, no. 6 (October 4, 2011): 963–978. doi:10.1007/s11442-011-0893-y.
Akinnubi RT, Babatolu JS. “Influence of Climate Change in Niger River Basin Development Authority Area on Niger Runoff, Nigeria.” Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change 05, no. 09 (2014). doi:10.4172/2157-7617.1000230.
Xu, Xiangyu, Dawen Yang, Hanbo Yang, and Huimin Lei. “Attribution Analysis Based on the Budyko Hypothesis for Detecting the Dominant Cause of Runoff Decline in Haihe Basin.” Journal of Hydrology 510 (March 2014): 530–540. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.052.
Sun, Y.Y.; Mu, X.M. and Gao, P. “Temporal Change in Runoff in the Upper and Middle Reaches of Yellow River.” Res. Soil Water Conser 24 (2017):59–64.
Conway, Declan. “From Headwater Tributaries to International River: Observing and Adapting to Climate Variability and Change in the Nile Basin.” Global Environmental Change 15, no. 2 (July 2005): 99–114. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.01.003.
N., Juddy, Aondover A.Tarhule, and Muthiah Perumal. “Study of Climate Change in Niger River Basin, West Africa: Reality Not a Myth.” Climate Change - Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks (January 16, 2013). doi:10.5772/55186.
Suleiman, YM, and LP Ifabiyi. “The Role of Rainfall Variability in Reservoir Storage Management at Shiroro Hydropower Dam, Nigeria.” Momona Ethiopian Journal of Science 7, no. 1 (May 19, 2015): 55. doi:10.4314/mejs.v7i1.117237.
Okafor, Gloria C., and Kingsley N. Ogbu. “Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Freshwater Availability of Kaduna River Basin, Nigeria.” Journal of Water and Land Development 38, no. 1 (September 1, 2018): 105–114. doi:10.2478/jwld-2018-0047.
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2020 Benjamin Nnamdi Ekwueme, Jonah C. AGUNWAMBA
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.