The Risk Assessment of Dam Construction Projects Using Fuzzy TOPSIS (Case Study: Alavian Earth Dam)

Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas, Mir Ahmad Lashteh Neshaei, Pouyan Pourkazem, Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas


One of the appropriate tools for conducting a successful project is the risk management during the implementation of the project. Dam construction projects are complex projects with high impact factors such as variable and uncertain conditions. To identify the risks of project, experts' experiences and comments including mind storm and consultation sessions were used. Risk analysis is a complex issue. Therefore, in this paper, the fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) technique was used to rank the risk which is a powerful and effective tool in solving complex problems under uncertain and implicit conditions. Due to the uncertainty in the language, fuzzy data were used for the quantitative analysis of the probability and severity of effects and the repetition of risks taken into account. The present research was conducted on Alavian dam in the northeast of Iran. Due to the result of the study, design mistakes' risk (R4) has the highest level of risk and earthquake, etc. has the lowest level of risk in Alavian dam project.


Risk Management; FMCDM; Uncertain Conditions; Dam Construction.


Rahimi, H. Earth Dam. Tehran: Institute of Tehran University Publications and Printing, 2003.

Griffiths, D. V., and P. A. Lane. "Slope stability analysis by finite elements." Geotechnique 49.3 (1999): 387-403.

Ahangari, K., Golestani Fard, M., & Abasszade, M. The decision making on the selection of methods of slope stabilization of dam reservoirs, 7th Conference of Engineering Geology and the Environment, University Shahrood , Iran,2010.

Jozi, Seyed Ali, and Seyede Hamideh Seyfosadat. "Environmental Risk Assessment of Gotvand-Olia Dam at Operational Phase Using the Integrated Method of Environmental Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (EFMEA) and Preliminary Hazard Analysis." Journal of Environmental Studies 40.1 (2014): 25.

Shayesteh, k., Ghashami, S. S.,& Mirsanjari, M. M. A Survey on Earthquake Risk Assessment of Dams and Prioritization of Management Strategies, Using AHP Method (Case study :Ekbatan Dam, Hamedan, Iran). International Journal of Farming and Allied Sciences, 43(2015):189-196.

Ghashami, S. Risk Assessment of Dam and Proposed Controls Priority by Using AHP Method, M.Sc. Thesis. Malayer

University, Malayer, Iran, 2012.

Harrald, John R., et al. "Review of risk based prioritization/decision making methodologies for dams." US army corps for engineers, The George Washington University, Institute for Crisis, Disaster, and Risk Management, Washington, DC 29 (2004).

Zadeh, Lotfi A. "Fuzzy sets." Information and control 8.3 (1965): 338-353.

Mamdani, Ebrahim H. "Application of fuzzy algorithms for control of simple dynamic plant." Proceedings of the Institution of Electrical Engineers. Vol. 121. No. 12. IET Digital Library, 1974.

Ataei, M. Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making. Shahrood: Shahrood University of Technology,2010.

Kaufmann, Arnold, and Madan M. Gupta. Fuzzy mathematical models in engineering and management science. Elsevier Science Inc., 1988.

Zimmermann, Hans-Jürgen. Fuzzy set theory—and its applications. Springer Science & Business Media, 2011.

Rad, M.Y., Haghshenas, S.S.,& Haghshenas, S.S. Mechanostratigraphy of cretaceous Rocks by Fuzzy Logic in East Arak, Iran. The 4th International Workshop on Computer Science and Engineering - Summer, WCSE, 2014.

Mikaeil, Reza, et al. "Ranking the sawability of ornamental stone using Fuzzy Delphi and multi-criteria decision-making techniques." International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences 58 (2013): 118-126.

Rad, Mostafa Yousefi, et al. "Analysis of Protection of Body Slope in the Rockfill Reservoir Dams on the Basis of Fuzzy Logic." IJCCI. 2012.

Mikaeil, Reza, Mohammad Ataei, and Reza Yousefi. Evaluating the Power Consumption in Carbonate Rock Sawing Process by Using FDAHP and TOPSIS Techniques. INTECH Open Access Publisher, 2011.

Yadani-Chamzini, Abdolreza, and Mohammad Hossein Basiri. "Risk Evaluation Of Tunnelling Projects By Fuzzy Topsis."

International Conference on Management (ICM 2011) Proceeding. No. 2011-087-331. Conference Master Resources, 2011.

Cheng, Jao-Hong, and Chih-Huei Tang. "An application of fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy AHP for multi-criteria evaluation on

bicycle industry supply chains." WSEAS Transactions on Systems and Control 4.1 (2009): 21-34.

Ertuğrul, İrfan, and Ayşegül Tuş. "Interactive fuzzy linear programming and an application sample at a textile firm." Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making 6.1 (2007): 29-49.

Kahraman, Cengiz, Da Ruan, and Ibrahim Doǧan. "Fuzzy group decision-making for facility location selection." Information Sciences 157 (2003): 135-153.

Amigun, Bamikole, Daniel Petrie, and Johann Görgens. "Economic risk assessment of advanced process technologies for

bioethanol production in South Africa: Monte Carlo analysis." Renewable Energy 36.11 (2011): 3178-3186.

Wu, Yun-Fu. "Correlated sampling techniques used in Monte Carlo simulation for risk assessment." International Journal of

Pressure Vessels and Piping 85.9 (2008): 662-669.

Au, Siu Kui, Zhi-Hua Wang, and Siu-Ming Lo. "Compartment fire risk analysis by advanced Monte Carlo simulation."

Engineering Structures 29.9 (2007): 2381-2390.

Bojadziev, George, and Maria Bojadziev. "Fuzzy Sets." Fuzzy Logic, Applications, World Scientific, Singapore (1995).

Koorepazan Dezfuli, A. Principles of Fuzzy Set theory and its Applications in the Modeling of Water Engineering Problems . Tehran. Iran. (2th ed.) Jahad Daneshgahi ,unit of Amirkabir Industrial,2008.

Linkov, Igor, et al. "From comparative risk assessment to multi-criteria decision analysis and adaptive management: Recent developments and applications." Environment International 32.8 (2006): 1072-1093.

Fouladgar, M. M., Yadani-Chamzini, A., & Basiri, M. H. Risk evaluation of tunneling projects by fuzzy Topsis. In

International conference on management, 2011.

Sayadi, A., Rajabzadeh, A., Hosseinpor, M.,& Hayati, M., . Risk ranking in tunneling projects using TOPSIS method. In: 8th Iranian Tunneling Conference. Tehran, (2009).

Wang, Tien-Chin, and Hsien-Da Lee. "Developing a fuzzy TOPSIS approach based on subjective weights and objective weights." Expert Systems with Applications 36.5 (2009): 8980-8985.

Wang, Ying-Ming, and Taha MS Elhag. "Fuzzy TOPSIS method based on alpha level sets with an application to bridge risk assessment." Expert systems with applications 31.2 (2006): 309-319.

Bottani, Eleonora, and Antonio Rizzi. "A fuzzy TOPSIS methodology to support outsourcing of logistics services." Supply Chain Management: An International Journal 11.4 (2006): 294-308.

Chen, Shu-Jen, and Ching-Lai Hwang. Fuzzy multiple attribute decision making methods. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1992.

Mahab Ghodss Consulting Engineering Company (MG). Report of Alavian dam project, 1990.

Full Text: PDF


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2016 Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas, Mir Ahmad Lashteh Neshaei, Pouyan Pourkazem, Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.